Economic Cues From US Can Help Dollar Inch High
Gold commodities has major number of economic cues from the US stood on the positive side and helped the US Dollar to inch higher towards the 81.20 mark, touching almost a two month high levels and indirectly also keeping a lid at the movement into the Bullion complex as usually both have inverse correlation. Nevertheless the last day’s data on Non-Farm payrolls pushed the currency lower and drove the gold and silver prices higher. In the next week, overall we still believe broader trend into the commodity is likely to continue on the weaker side. While the US economic data and the markets went against our view into gold on the last trading day of the week, overall cumulative set of economic and markets related cues still depict weakness into the commodity.
Next week for the bullion complex, we have the major PPI number from the US and later the CPI data from the US and the Euro both. As also stated earlier, we had been writing about weak set of inflation readings from the major global economic which is having a major negative impact on the yellow metal as it is treated as a hedge against inflation. Though we believe there is a chance for modest increase in the month on month figures on the inflation side, they still stay way below the targeted levels for central banks. In the latest monetary policy meeting by the ECB and the BoE too, both the banks kept their benchmark rates unchanged though the ECB told about the downside risks to the economy and inflation. Lower inflationary concerns are not only there in the developed economic but major developing economies also to face the negativism. The recent data on PPI from China showed, official figure moved down to -1.4% v/s a forecast number of -1.3% and show about the extended negativism regarding the manufacturing sector into the world’s second largest economy. Lower inflation cast a negative shadow for the bullion complex broadly and particularly gold.
Only positivism in terms of gold can be checked with the fact that the disappointing set of Jobs data from the US for December would push the fears of an extended tapering from the US central bank, back for some time. However there too the unemployment reduced to just 6.7% and further near towards the targeted level of the Fed. On a cumulative basis we still maintain our weak bias into the commodity. Though like-wise this week, we could see reduced amount of volatility into next week as traders would look for digesting this big employment related data first. We advice traders to look for pull-backs to initiate fresh shorts into the commodity. In the local front, we feel the anticipation of moderate appreciation continuing into the Rupee is also likely to support our downside view into the commodity
Gold February MCX futures prices witnessed downfall compare to its previous week’s trend. For the week ahead prices are likely to remain downside as long as 29406 levels holds. As per the Fibonacci principle prices are hovering below the 29098.29(38.2% retracement of the range 28100-30712.55). On the lower side supports are seen at 28716 (23.6%) followed by 28075(previous weeks low). Key resistance level to watch for the week is at 29406 50% retracement). For short term traders we suggest selling.
Cardamom Market opened steady and move down on Monday but surged on Tuesday’ trading session. It got good support from its intraday support zone near INR 663 and spiked up during later trading days. It marked the weeks high near INR 734.90 in continuation chart during week end. Finally prices close with the formation of positive candlestick hinting possibility of further upside during coming couple of weeks. OI and volume continue to decline at higher levels hinting short covering at lower levels. Failing to close above the same might brings the prices to test towards its support of 663. Meanwhile it might get good support towards its 20 day’s EMA support zone. Any upside movement might face stiff resistance towards at INR 745 and the same might keep the prices on defensive note. MACD is trading negative territory signifies downside movement. The 14-day RSI and stochastic (9, 3, 3) is moving flat in neutral region indicating sideways trend likely to continue during coming couple of weeks. Considering the above factors price is likely to trade sideways in near term
Major Resistance on upside at 745-778
Major Support on downside at 66-630
Trend deciding level at 713
Turmeric Prices have surged sharply and now consolidating near the resistance level and might take correction facing stiff resistance at INR 7274. But overall uptrend is still intact in the market and after an initial correction; Prices are expected to resume its bullish tone. Any major trend reversal in Prices could be seen only below at INR 6232 for the levels of INR 5730. On the up side INR 7274 is the key resistance and any cross over the above level may lead sharp rally in prices for the levels of 7738. Open Interest and Volume is also signaling some profit booking. Prices already trading above 20 and 50 day EMA at INR 5544 and 5502 was signaling short term strength now prices has also closed above 100 day EMA at INR 5756 signifies further strength to continue. The 14 day RSI is in overbought zone and might take technical correction. The Stochastic (9,3,3) continued to trade with flat node. Concisely prices are expected to show some profit booking in coming trading session which may lead prices to go down but any sharp correction in prices will be again buying opportunity.
Major Resistance on upside at 7274-7738
Major Support on downside at 6232-5730
Trend deciding level at 6782
Jeera During the week, Jeera prices were in the grip of bears as slipped sharply to test the week low of INR 12270 and from last couple of days hovering around the levels of INR 12460-12600 with the formation of a hammer in second last trading day of the week followed by Bearish candle. OI and volume declined during the session and thus the prices may enter in a zone of consolidation of may weaken. On the downside, prices are hovering around 12180 signifies that prices seem to be bottom out and technically may bounce. On the up side immediate resistance is at INR 12956 and any daily close above the given level may lead prices to the levels of 13260-13480.Prices already trading below 20 and 50 day EMA at INR 12780 and 13111 was signaling short term weakness. MACD is trading in negative territory showing some bearish movement in coming weeks. The 14-day RSI is curving down while stochastic (9, 3, 3) is continue to decline in neutral region indicating sideways movement. Above facts are indicating some buying interest at lower levels but one should enter in buy side with strict stop loss as any major strength could be seen only above INR 12956.
Major Resistance on upside at 12956-13260
Major Support on downside at 12180-11822
Trend deciding level at 12540
Commodity Trading Tips
SELL GOLD MCX FEB ON RISE NEAR 29100-29150 SL 29410 TGT 28800-28550
SELL CARDAMOM NCDEX FEB AROUND 730-740 SL 780 TGT 695-670
SELL TURMERIC NCDEX APRIL NEAR 6950 SL 7275 TGT 6500-6400
BUY JEERA NCDEX MARCH NEAR 12270 SL 12180 TGT 12550-12730
Next week for the bullion complex, we have the major PPI number from the US and later the CPI data from the US and the Euro both. As also stated earlier, we had been writing about weak set of inflation readings from the major global economic which is having a major negative impact on the yellow metal as it is treated as a hedge against inflation. Though we believe there is a chance for modest increase in the month on month figures on the inflation side, they still stay way below the targeted levels for central banks. In the latest monetary policy meeting by the ECB and the BoE too, both the banks kept their benchmark rates unchanged though the ECB told about the downside risks to the economy and inflation. Lower inflationary concerns are not only there in the developed economic but major developing economies also to face the negativism. The recent data on PPI from China showed, official figure moved down to -1.4% v/s a forecast number of -1.3% and show about the extended negativism regarding the manufacturing sector into the world’s second largest economy. Lower inflation cast a negative shadow for the bullion complex broadly and particularly gold.
Only positivism in terms of gold can be checked with the fact that the disappointing set of Jobs data from the US for December would push the fears of an extended tapering from the US central bank, back for some time. However there too the unemployment reduced to just 6.7% and further near towards the targeted level of the Fed. On a cumulative basis we still maintain our weak bias into the commodity. Though like-wise this week, we could see reduced amount of volatility into next week as traders would look for digesting this big employment related data first. We advice traders to look for pull-backs to initiate fresh shorts into the commodity. In the local front, we feel the anticipation of moderate appreciation continuing into the Rupee is also likely to support our downside view into the commodity
Gold February MCX futures prices witnessed downfall compare to its previous week’s trend. For the week ahead prices are likely to remain downside as long as 29406 levels holds. As per the Fibonacci principle prices are hovering below the 29098.29(38.2% retracement of the range 28100-30712.55). On the lower side supports are seen at 28716 (23.6%) followed by 28075(previous weeks low). Key resistance level to watch for the week is at 29406 50% retracement). For short term traders we suggest selling.
Cardamom Market opened steady and move down on Monday but surged on Tuesday’ trading session. It got good support from its intraday support zone near INR 663 and spiked up during later trading days. It marked the weeks high near INR 734.90 in continuation chart during week end. Finally prices close with the formation of positive candlestick hinting possibility of further upside during coming couple of weeks. OI and volume continue to decline at higher levels hinting short covering at lower levels. Failing to close above the same might brings the prices to test towards its support of 663. Meanwhile it might get good support towards its 20 day’s EMA support zone. Any upside movement might face stiff resistance towards at INR 745 and the same might keep the prices on defensive note. MACD is trading negative territory signifies downside movement. The 14-day RSI and stochastic (9, 3, 3) is moving flat in neutral region indicating sideways trend likely to continue during coming couple of weeks. Considering the above factors price is likely to trade sideways in near term
Major Resistance on upside at 745-778
Major Support on downside at 66-630
Trend deciding level at 713
Turmeric Prices have surged sharply and now consolidating near the resistance level and might take correction facing stiff resistance at INR 7274. But overall uptrend is still intact in the market and after an initial correction; Prices are expected to resume its bullish tone. Any major trend reversal in Prices could be seen only below at INR 6232 for the levels of INR 5730. On the up side INR 7274 is the key resistance and any cross over the above level may lead sharp rally in prices for the levels of 7738. Open Interest and Volume is also signaling some profit booking. Prices already trading above 20 and 50 day EMA at INR 5544 and 5502 was signaling short term strength now prices has also closed above 100 day EMA at INR 5756 signifies further strength to continue. The 14 day RSI is in overbought zone and might take technical correction. The Stochastic (9,3,3) continued to trade with flat node. Concisely prices are expected to show some profit booking in coming trading session which may lead prices to go down but any sharp correction in prices will be again buying opportunity.
Major Resistance on upside at 7274-7738
Major Support on downside at 6232-5730
Trend deciding level at 6782
Jeera During the week, Jeera prices were in the grip of bears as slipped sharply to test the week low of INR 12270 and from last couple of days hovering around the levels of INR 12460-12600 with the formation of a hammer in second last trading day of the week followed by Bearish candle. OI and volume declined during the session and thus the prices may enter in a zone of consolidation of may weaken. On the downside, prices are hovering around 12180 signifies that prices seem to be bottom out and technically may bounce. On the up side immediate resistance is at INR 12956 and any daily close above the given level may lead prices to the levels of 13260-13480.Prices already trading below 20 and 50 day EMA at INR 12780 and 13111 was signaling short term weakness. MACD is trading in negative territory showing some bearish movement in coming weeks. The 14-day RSI is curving down while stochastic (9, 3, 3) is continue to decline in neutral region indicating sideways movement. Above facts are indicating some buying interest at lower levels but one should enter in buy side with strict stop loss as any major strength could be seen only above INR 12956.
Major Resistance on upside at 12956-13260
Major Support on downside at 12180-11822
Trend deciding level at 12540
Commodity Trading Tips
SELL GOLD MCX FEB ON RISE NEAR 29100-29150 SL 29410 TGT 28800-28550
SELL CARDAMOM NCDEX FEB AROUND 730-740 SL 780 TGT 695-670
SELL TURMERIC NCDEX APRIL NEAR 6950 SL 7275 TGT 6500-6400
BUY JEERA NCDEX MARCH NEAR 12270 SL 12180 TGT 12550-12730
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