Betting on the River
So you made it all the way to the river. Say you hold a mid-pair like a 9c-9s in the hole. The flop came 9h-7h-5d. Standard bets and calls followed. The turn came 8c. Again a standard bet and call. Now the 4h peals off on the river. This scare card may have made a flush for your opponent. What to do?
River Strategy
With this board your opponent bets two-thirds of the pot representing that he made his flush. What is clear is that either he made it or he didn't but being first to act he decided to represent the flush. You hold a set of nines. A flush definitely beats you. Because your opponent bet into you you might want to succumb to the pressure and fold but is that the right decision in this case?
When all the cards are out, there are no more draws, no cards to come, your opponent has two choices if you are behind him in late position. He can either check or bet. In this case your opponent bet. If he didn't make his flush the river heart is a scare card not only to you but to him as well. Knowing this and knowing that at this point in the action there are four possible hands your opponent may hold.
1. Minimal strength hands: These hands include a busted straight or flush draw. After the river missed your opponent he may hold nothing more than ace high or worse. He may also have a low ranking pair like 44, 55, or 66 each of which lose to your set.
2. Medium strength hands: Hands like top pair with a good kicker but not the top kicker, anywhere from a ten through queen would be reasonable here. Middle and low ranked two pair or even middle to low ranked sets or trips if the board paired fall into this category.
3. Very good hands: Top two pair with top kicker, top and middle pair with a strong kicker, a set over the rank of ten that are not the nuts are all possible here.
4. The nuts: The best possible hand given the texture of the board. In this case, the nuts would be an ace high heart flush. Your set of nines are almost a very good hand.
Meaning of Opponent's Bet
If your opponent checked to you on the river it could be interpreted as one of several moves. He may have missed his flush and he is simply giving up on the hand. On the other hand, he may be setting up a check-raise which is a strong indicator of strength. Because your opponent actually made a substantial bet on the river, this bet could be interpreted in a number of ways. He is telling you he made his flush and if you can't beat him to fold. He is bluffing having missed his flush and or straight and he had you on a draw that you also missed. The purpose of his bet may be to induce you to fold here. He may have hit a small set which he thinks is good and he might even want a call here.
Decision Time
You have an additional set of information to help you make your decision. If your opponent is loose or tight, passive or aggressive. If you play back at him and he has not made a hand will he fold? A loose, passive player may fold. A tight, passive player will surely fold to a re-raise. An aggressive player may just want to push back at you and then what?
You also have probabilities to think about. How likely is your set of nines to beat your opponent. In fact, the nines make top set. If your opponent made a set on the river it is a set of fours, on the flop a set of eights so no problem there. You win 100% of the time. On the other hand, if your opponent holds an A6 in the hole then he made a straight and you lose. A heart and he made his flush.
If you are up against a loose player whom you think will give it up if you raise with top set then by all means it is correct to play back at him. If he re-raises then it is correct to fold. If you believe that your opponent will call your raise because he tends to want his opponents to show then just a call will do. If your opponent is tight and aggressive you might seriously consider a fold in this situation. Tight, aggressive players generally tell a true story with their betting patterns. It would be quite believable to think he made his flush. But, remember to use the random number generator you wear on your wrist. I would push back at a tight aggressive player about 25% of the time in this situation.
Fear and Courage
Poker requires analysis of situations and opponents. You are often called upon to make bets in the face of a story being told by your opponents that is simply not true. In no-limit hold 'em, especially, there is great power in betting and acting first at the end of a hand. In this case, the set of nines may be second best but not necessarily. They could be the nuts. In poker, I like to say, everything depends on everything. Your skill at reading your opponents, their patterns, positional betting trends, style, and aggression will go a long way to help you make difficult decisions on the river. Sometimes you simply have to make the difficult decision to push back while other times you must make the decision to make the big lay-down. It all depends on everything.
River Strategy
With this board your opponent bets two-thirds of the pot representing that he made his flush. What is clear is that either he made it or he didn't but being first to act he decided to represent the flush. You hold a set of nines. A flush definitely beats you. Because your opponent bet into you you might want to succumb to the pressure and fold but is that the right decision in this case?
When all the cards are out, there are no more draws, no cards to come, your opponent has two choices if you are behind him in late position. He can either check or bet. In this case your opponent bet. If he didn't make his flush the river heart is a scare card not only to you but to him as well. Knowing this and knowing that at this point in the action there are four possible hands your opponent may hold.
1. Minimal strength hands: These hands include a busted straight or flush draw. After the river missed your opponent he may hold nothing more than ace high or worse. He may also have a low ranking pair like 44, 55, or 66 each of which lose to your set.
2. Medium strength hands: Hands like top pair with a good kicker but not the top kicker, anywhere from a ten through queen would be reasonable here. Middle and low ranked two pair or even middle to low ranked sets or trips if the board paired fall into this category.
3. Very good hands: Top two pair with top kicker, top and middle pair with a strong kicker, a set over the rank of ten that are not the nuts are all possible here.
4. The nuts: The best possible hand given the texture of the board. In this case, the nuts would be an ace high heart flush. Your set of nines are almost a very good hand.
Meaning of Opponent's Bet
If your opponent checked to you on the river it could be interpreted as one of several moves. He may have missed his flush and he is simply giving up on the hand. On the other hand, he may be setting up a check-raise which is a strong indicator of strength. Because your opponent actually made a substantial bet on the river, this bet could be interpreted in a number of ways. He is telling you he made his flush and if you can't beat him to fold. He is bluffing having missed his flush and or straight and he had you on a draw that you also missed. The purpose of his bet may be to induce you to fold here. He may have hit a small set which he thinks is good and he might even want a call here.
Decision Time
You have an additional set of information to help you make your decision. If your opponent is loose or tight, passive or aggressive. If you play back at him and he has not made a hand will he fold? A loose, passive player may fold. A tight, passive player will surely fold to a re-raise. An aggressive player may just want to push back at you and then what?
You also have probabilities to think about. How likely is your set of nines to beat your opponent. In fact, the nines make top set. If your opponent made a set on the river it is a set of fours, on the flop a set of eights so no problem there. You win 100% of the time. On the other hand, if your opponent holds an A6 in the hole then he made a straight and you lose. A heart and he made his flush.
If you are up against a loose player whom you think will give it up if you raise with top set then by all means it is correct to play back at him. If he re-raises then it is correct to fold. If you believe that your opponent will call your raise because he tends to want his opponents to show then just a call will do. If your opponent is tight and aggressive you might seriously consider a fold in this situation. Tight, aggressive players generally tell a true story with their betting patterns. It would be quite believable to think he made his flush. But, remember to use the random number generator you wear on your wrist. I would push back at a tight aggressive player about 25% of the time in this situation.
Fear and Courage
Poker requires analysis of situations and opponents. You are often called upon to make bets in the face of a story being told by your opponents that is simply not true. In no-limit hold 'em, especially, there is great power in betting and acting first at the end of a hand. In this case, the set of nines may be second best but not necessarily. They could be the nuts. In poker, I like to say, everything depends on everything. Your skill at reading your opponents, their patterns, positional betting trends, style, and aggression will go a long way to help you make difficult decisions on the river. Sometimes you simply have to make the difficult decision to push back while other times you must make the decision to make the big lay-down. It all depends on everything.
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